The Burden of Chronic Respiratory Diseases Attributable to Three Occupational Risk Drivers at the Global, Regional, and National Levels from 1990 to 2021 and Projections for 2050: Deteriorationor Improvement?

ABSTRACT

Occupational risk is an important trigger for chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs). However, it remains challenging to accurately describe how the burden of these diseases (caused by work-related risks) changes over time. This study used disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. Data were obtained from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study. We studied chronic respiratory illnesses associated with occupational risks including occupational carcinogens; occupational asthmagens; and occupational particulate matter, gases, and fumes. Joinpoint regression and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were employed to assess the corresponding trends over the periods 1990-2019 and 2020-2050, respectively. Additionally, statistical models such as frontier analysis and health inequality analysis were used. The Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was used to interpret and analyze the machine learning model based on the XGBoost algorithm. By quantifying the SHAP values of various occupational risk variables, importance ranking of the features was performed to accurately identify the most influential occupational risk factors. The results demonstrate that during 1990-2021, the DALYs for CRDs caused by occupational carcinogens; occupational asthmagens; and occupational particulate matter, gases, and fumes decreased worldwide. The DALYs for CRDs caused by the above factors were negatively correlated with the sociodemographic index. Frontier analysis identified countries and regions that required urgent action to reduce the impact of occupational risks. This study projected that the burden of CRDs caused by occupational carcinogens; occupational asthmagens; and occupational particulate matter, gases, and fumes will continue to decline from 2022 to 2050. This study conducted an epidemiological survey on the burden of CRDs caused by occupational carcinogens; occupational asthmagens; and occupational particulate matter, gases, and fumes among different regions and populations globally, providing epidemiological insights into the burden of CRDs caused by global occupational risks. It can be used to guide the formulation of relevant policies and planning of research directions.